Influence of the climatic factor on the medico-geographical situation with special reference to natural-focal diseases

Theme 1. Environmental protection
Session Name 1.4 Sustainable development of the Arctic - boreal regions
Presentation Type Oral
Author(s) Svetlana Malkhazova (Lomonosov Moscow State University, Russian Federation), Dmitry Orlov (University of Helsinki, Finland), Olga Adishcheva (Lomonosov Moscow State University, Russian Federation), Varvara Mironova (Lomonosov Moscow State University, Russian Federation), Polina Pestina (Lomonosov Moscow State University, Russian Federation)
Abstract text

Introduction


The spread of almost all diseases caused by living pathogens is determined primarily by environmental conditions. The climatic factor is deemed one of the main determinants for their spread. The goal of this research is to develop a theory and to obtain sound scientific results in assessing the possible influence of the climatic factor on the medico-geographical situation.


Methods


A number of new methodological solutions have been proposed, in particular, a methodology for transforming statistical data for the transition from administrative units to natural geographic mapping units, a methodology for constructing spatial-temporal forecasts, etc., has been developed and tested.


Results


Based on the analysis of the links between the epidemic manifestations of natural foci and climatic factors, a prognosis of possible changes in their distribution in the context of global climate changes was made. It is shown that in 2046-2065 we can expect the advancement of tick-borne infections to the north and the active expansion of West Nile fever nosoarea. Northern regions may become more hazardous from the point of view of possibility to contract some infections. In southern territories probability of infection with tick-borne diseases would rather decrease or disappear.


Conclusions                                                         


The use of the data retrieval system of medical geographical and environmental information based on Web-GIS technology and a series of developed evaluation maps with descriptive texts on influence of climatic factor on foci of naturally determined diseases may be useful when prioritizing measures for the disease prevention, regional strategic planning and economic development of territories.

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