Short-term variability forecasting of Arctic greenhouse gases and reactive species

Theme 5. Other
Session Name 5.20 Open science session
Datetime Sep 05, 2018 11:05 AM - 11:20 AM (UTC +3)
Location Tellus Arena, Tellus Innovation Arena
Presentation Type Oral
Presenter Maria Cherepova
Author(s) Maria Cherepova (Russian State Hydrometeorological University, Russian Federation), Sergei Smyshlyaev (Russian State Hydrometeorological University, Russian Federation)
Abstract text

Research focuses on the effects of internal (Arctic) and external processes affecting chemical composition in the Arctic and Subarctic atmosphere. The chemistry climate model (CCM) and the chemistry transport model of Eurasia (EurCTM) are used to study special aspects of gas composition variability forecasting. EurCTM assimilates the GFS (Global Forecast System) meteorological data and calculates gas composition variabilities on previous day and then predicts its change within the next three days based on the analysis. CCM is used to determine the initial and boundary conditions for the EurCTM taking into account the influence of global processes. EurCTM is designed to predict changes in air quality and gas composition and to clarify the links between regional, mesoscale and global processes. The relationship between local sources and remote processes is important for predicting the mixture ratios and total column content of atmospheric gases. Both models are used to study the effects of Arctic gas hydrates on the gas composition of the atmosphere. The melting of gas hydrates as a result of climate change in the future can significantly change the chemical composition of the atmosphere in the polar and subpolar regions. The influence of feedbacks between the change in the methane and hydroxyl radicals on the changes in the content of surface ozone and stratospheric water vapor and associated gases is studied using numerical experiments. Model assimilation of ground-based and satellite observations makes it possible to determine the role of various physical and chemical processes in the variability of the atmospheric gases.

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